Aussie back in casino mode – Online Casino Games

Online Casino Games – Aussie back in casino mode

In the 1st half of 2008 commodity prices were surging, both riding and attracting an unprecedented wave of speculative investment. And the Australian dollar peaked in July around 97.5 US cents and 74.1 on the Reserve Bank’s trade-weighted index.

In a note to clients over the weekend, South Africa’s standard bank’s commodities analysts noted that speculative activity in US commodity contracts is back to where it was in May-June 2008. The Aussie jumped greater than a cent on Friday night and today’s TWI is probably going to be near 72 when the RBA calculates it this afternoon.

standard bank’s Walter de Wet writes that the adaptation is that almost all economies were on the decline in May 2008, whereas now they’re showing signs of recovery, promising the speculators greater length. Throw within the clear correlation between the increase in commodity speculators going long and the united states dollar weakening and it appears like the Aussie is determined for a ride as wild as a hedge fund casino betting.

(I’d argue that there’s an honest deal of chicken-or-the-egg within the greenback/commodity price correlation as punters run for commodities partly as a gamble on the united states dollar falling and commodity prices are inclined to rise since the US dollar falls.)

Just about every pet shop parrot is talking up our currency reaching parity with the greenback. that looks a favored bet, but such consensus often is an indication for caution.

The Standard Bank research note points out that the present commodity price surge is happening despite large inventories and costs being well above production costs which, in fundamental theory, must be limiting the upside for this rally.

Walter de Wet reckons the speculative surge could mean commodities will remain partly a play on the united states dollar and that they can suffer sizeable corrections because the increased punting activity means greater volatility.

Wild swings

Standard Bank, in keeping with its South African heritage, remains within the commodities bull camp on longer-term fundamentals, however it looks just like the current burst of optimism presages some wild swings in 2010.

The Aussie’s current rally isn’t just against a falling greenback as we’ve been gaining on the TWI in addition. The Reserve Bank’s commodity price index shows our commodities were outpacing the Aussie in November and December – gaining in both Aussie and SDR (special drawing rights) terms.

Meanwhile the source of much of our commodity demand, China, has claimed Germany’s title because the world’s largest exporter. China’s exports jumped 17.7 per cent in December, in accordance with Xinhua, giving total 2009 exports of $US1.2 trillion.

That’s down 16 per cent on 2008, but other countries’ exports have fallen further. Before the anti-China lobby gets too excited, the rustic’s trade surplus fell by 34.2 per cent to $US196.1 billion, reflecting the annus horribilis for global trade.

Australia was a unprecedented exception, increasing its exports in 2009 – something that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the realm’s commodity and currency speculators. Welcome back to life within the online casino games.